Varcoe: Majority of Alberta chamber members see negative effects of separation debate on economy, survey finds
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Orsign-inif you have an account. Alberta Chambers of Commerce CEO and president Shauna Feth. Photo suppliedAs an October vote on Alberta separation draws closer, provincial business leaders say the debate is starting to weigh upon companies — and negatively affect views about the state of the provincial economy. Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Calgary Herald ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. 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Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorThe Alberta Chambers of Commerce will release a new report on Thursday that shows 39 per cent of its members and business respondents who were surveyed recently believe the discourse surrounding separation is affecting their companies — up 11 percentage points since January — while nearly half say it’s not having an influence. Concerns about separation focus on the potential for slowing the economy or a recession — cited by almost seven in 10 of those who think there’s an impact — followed by the effect on investment and sales dropping. SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE: FP West: Energy Insider brings you behind the oilpatch’s closed doors with exclusive insights from insiders every Wednesday morning. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of FP West: Energy Insider will soon be in your inbox. We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againSlightly more than two-thirds of respondents say the issue is affecting the provincial economy. And of those, about 90 per cent characterize it as negative, citing a range of issues, such as the ramifications on business investment or companies considering a move out of the province. Of the respondents who believe the discussion is impacting Alberta’s economy, about six in 10 said it would increase the risk of a recession, make it harder to grow trade with other provinces, and lead to talent leaving or make it more difficult to attract workers. “There’s real uncertainty as this issue has surfaced, and as we’re trying to work through it as a province,” Alberta Chambers of Commerce CEO Shauna Feth said in an interview. “This is having an impact, and it is something that they’re concerned about — and it is constraining their decisions around . . . investment and deployment of capital and hiring. ”Alberta voters will weigh in on the separation issue as part of a referendum in October. The results would not trigger the province leaving Canada, but could start the legal process to hold a binding referendum in the future. The chamber’s online survey of 681 business respondents was conducted between late May and June 17, while it also commissioned an online poll of 800 Albertans earlier this month. Among the general public, 62 per cent of Albertans said the discourse surrounding separation is affecting the provincial economy. The group’s survey also examined other economic issues in the province. It noted the number of business leaders who are feeling positive about the long-term view of the province has declined to 54 per cent, down from 71 per cent two years ago. Asked about the most important issues facing the province, business leaders cited federal policies on Alberta (20 per cent) as the top concern. While not specifically mentioned on the list, separation was written in by 15 per cent, garnering second spot. The report also indicated that 88 per cent of business respondents and 85 per cent of the public think the oil and gas sector will continue to be important — or become even more so — in the future for Alberta’s economy. The survey by the group — a federation of 106 community-based chambers of commerce across Alberta — comes as the provincial government and Ottawa have recently been working together after several years of conflict. In November, the federal and provincial governmentssigned an energy memorandum of understandingthat removed several contentious federal policies, while the Alberta government is pitching a new bitumen pipeline to the Pacific Coast. “If we can really mend that relationship and get some of these major projects moving forward . . . a lot of the (separation) sentiment will start falling off,” said Feth. Speaking to reporters this spring, ATCO chief executive Nancy Southerntouted the opportunities for Alberta and the countryfrom the energy MOU, but also warned about the effect of discussions on separation. “I believe the memorandum of understanding . . . is going to set the stage for pushing back on the reasons as to why (some people) might want to call for separation,” she said at the time. Nancy Southern, CEO of ATCO, speaks at the company AGM held at the Palliser Hotel in downtown Calgary on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Dean Pilling/PostmediaMeanwhile, a separate survey for the Calgary Chamber of Commerce of its own members was released Wednesday, showing a high level of attention being paid to the October vote and the separation issue. Fully nine out of 10 are closely following the public discussion about the referendum questions, it indicated. And 48 per cent of respondents said they’re very or somewhat likely to leave Alberta and relocate their business, if the vote to start a binding separation process is passed. It found 63 per cent of respondents say separatism is having a negative effect on their business. The local survey also indicated 80 per cent of respondents believe the discussion around separatism is negatively affecting Alberta’s economy, said Calgary Chamber of Commerce CEO Deborah Yedlin. “There’s just so much that’s affecting businesses now, it’s one more variable to solve for,” Yedlin said. “The concern is real. ”The online survey of 137 Calgary chamber members was conducted June 8 to June 22. Deborah Yedlin, Calgary Chamber of Commerce President and CEO, on Oct. 8, 2025. The Calgary Chamber of Commerce conducted a survey that shows most respondents believe separatist talk is negatively affecting Alberta’s economy. Brent Calver/PostmediaThe business group commissioned research by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, examining some of the potential economic implications of separation. Based on the effect of the Brexit vote on the United Kingdom, an eight per cent hike in interprovincial and international trade costs from separation would reduce Alberta’s GDP per person by about six per cent. This would lower employment by roughly 175,000 jobs and contract the economy by an estimated $62 billion annually, it said. Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist. Join the ConversationThis website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more aboutcookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to ourTerms of UseandPrivacy Policy.