U. S. ECONOMY SHEDS 23,000 JOBS IN JULY, MAY, AND JUNE REVISED DOWN - Trends Journal
The U. S. economy shrank by 23,000 nonfarm jobs in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported, surprising analysts in a Reuters poll who had expected to see a gain of 80,000.
The U. S. economy shrank by 23,000 nonfarm jobs in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported, surprising analysts in a Reuters poll who had expected to see a gain of 80,000. The unemployment rate ticked down 4. 2 percent in June to 4. 1 percent in July as another 264,000 working-age Americans left the labor force. The BLS’s initial May estimate of 129,000 jobs added was slashed by more than half to a final tally of 63,000. June’s number was cut from 37,000 to a gain of 20,000. The revisions erased 103,000 jobs from the May and June totals and lowered the 12-month average monthly gain to just 34,000 – and just 20,000 a month across May, June, and July. Economists have estimated that the economy needs to hatch 20,000 to 50,000 new jobs each month to stay even with population growth. July’s losses were led by decline of 50,000 in public education, which many economists believe was caused by teachers’ typical 10-month contracts expiring. Retail payrolls shrank by 19,400. The financial industry lost 14,000 spots. Leisure and hospitality businesses dropped by 40,000, to some degree because of the end of the World Cup soccer tournament ending. The sector has lost jobs for two consecutive months, in part because consumers are eating more at home to save money and gas. Restaurants and bars eliminated 26,100 jobs. Construction added 22,000 workers during the summer building season. The healthcare industry also grew 22,000 jobs, less than its 12-month average of 36,000. Factory workers added 5,000 to their number in July, largely related to the AI construction frenzy, Reuters suggested. The proportion of manufacturers that reported adding jobs was 50 percent in July, down almost 10 percent from 56. 9 percent in June. The average workweek remained at June’s level of 34. 3 hours, indicating that employers are not suffering from a shortage of workers; if they were, economists said, the average workweek would increase. Wages grew at an annual rate of 3. 4 percent in June but dropped to 3. 2 percent last month. The figures do not show a crisis in the jobs market, many economists said. Several still see this as a “low-hire low-fire” economy. “This is the third summer in a row that we have seen unexpected weakness in the labor market,” Stephen Stanley, chief U. S. economist for Santander U. S. Capital Markets, told Reuters. “Policymakers broadly see the labor market as stable. ”Household employment, a measure used to figure the jobless rate, declined by 87,000 because of the continued exodus of working-age Americans from the workforce. That dropped the labor force participation rate – the number of working-age Americans working or actively looking for a job – to 61. 4 percent. The rate has shrunk in six of the past seven months. “Since January, the labor force has fallen by [an average of] 228,000 persons per month and these individuals appear to have been foreign born,” John Ryding, a Brean Capital economic advisor, wrote in a note. “It is hard not to attribute the decline in the labor force to immigration enforcement and policies,” he added. “From the Fed’s perspective, the labor market is at full employment, and the economy cannot create jobs from people who are not here. ”However, several studies have found that about seven million native-born U. S. males from age 25 through 54 have left the labor force for several reasons. Most have been shown to not be looking for work nor to be volunteering or otherwise contributing to their communities. The labor force has shrunk by almost a million workers in June and July,but no one is sure why. A rise in retirements and Donald Trump’s deportation of immigrant workers is suspected but there is no firm data. In recent months, about 25 percent of people receiving jobless benefits have been out of work for at least six months. The number declined in July, which may mean that more of them have quit looking and left the labor force. The employment-to-population ratio, which gauges an economy’s ability to create jobs, has fallen close to a five-year low, Reuters said. “Outside of the COVID era, the participation rate is at its lowest since the middle part of 1976,” Reuters noted. July’s negative job numbers buoyed expectations that the U. S. Federal Reserve will not raise its interest rate next month. Markets and speculators had been focused on inflation rising with the continuation of the Iran War. Now a weak jobs market will likely persuade the central bank to leave rates alone to foster job growth. Before the report was released, rate speculators were giving 55-percent odds that the Fed would boost its key rate in September. After the report appeared, the odds dropped to 44 percent, data service LSEG reported. TREND FORECAST:Again, by the data, the top 10 percent of Americans are pumping up the nation’s GDP as the middle class keeps shrinking and the jobs being created – as per the data – are low-paying. And, as we keep noting, time after time, the government keeps revising the job numbers down, thus the economy is worse than it looks. We forecast that President Trump will do all he can to lower interest rates in the run-up to the mid-term elections so that he maintains a congressional majority. August 11 2026,jobs,U. S. Economy