Togo to Update GDP Base Year as Economy and Income Status Shift
Togo will complete a new GDP rebasing exercise by the end of 2026 using data from the country's fifth population and housing census. The previous rebasing in 2020 increased the country's 2016 GDP by 37. 4% and reduced key fiscal indicators, including the debt-to-GDP ratio. The statistical revision follows the World. . .
Togo will complete a new GDP rebasing exercise by the end of 2026 using data from the country's fifth population and housing census. The previous rebasing in 2020 increased the country's 2016 GDP by 37. 4% and reduced key fiscal indicators, including the debt-to-GDP ratio. The statistical revision follows the World Bank's recent reclassification of Togo as a lower-middle-income economy. Togo plans to complete a new rebasing of its national accounts by the end of 2026, updating the base year used to calculate gross domestic product (GDP) to better reflect the current structure of the economy and capture activities that existing statistics underestimate. Sandra Ablamba Johnson, Minister and Secretary General of the Presidency of the Council, confirmed the timetable while chairing the 13th ordinary session of the National Statistics Council (CNS) in Lomé on June 30. The government will use data from the Fifth General Population and Housing Census (RGPH-5), conducted in late 2022, to support the revision. "There is no credible governance without reliable data,"Johnson said. She called for"current, disaggregated and high-quality"statistics to guide the government's 2026-2031 Roadmap, which aims to double Togolese citizens' real standard of living by 2040. Second GDP Rebasing in Six YearsThe exercise will mark Togo's second GDP rebasing in six years. The Council of Ministers approved the previous rebasing in September 2020 after work that began in 2018. During that exercise, Togo adopted the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA 2008), replacing the 1993 System of National Accounts, and updated the GDP base year to 2016 from 2007. The revision increased the country's 2016 GDP estimate to CFA3,597. 8 billion from CFA2,618. 1 billion. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic and Demographic Studies (INSEED) later calculated the upward revision at 37. 4%. The upcoming rebasing will replace the 2016 base year. Moreover, the United Nations' 2008 System of National Accounts recommends updating GDP base years every five years to ensure that national accounts reflect structural changes in the economy. "With the 2016 base year now a decade old, Togo has fallen behind this timetable and has every reason to undertake another rebasing exercise,"a Togolese economist familiar with the matter said. What GDP Rebasing ChangesGDP rebasing recalculates national output using a more recent reference year while incorporating emerging industries and economic activities that previous estimates captured only partially. The exercise also improves the measurement of the informal sector, which accounts for a significant share of Togo's economy. As a result, the country's measured economic output increases, improving macroeconomic indicators expressed as a share of GDP. Regional TrendTogo's decision follows a broader trend across West Africa. All eight member states of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) have rebased their national accounts, with several completing the exercise more than once. Benin completed another rebasing in June 2026, increasing its 2023 GDP to CFA14. 02 trillion, a 25. 2% upward revision, using 2023 as the new base year instead of 2015. Outside WAEMU, Nigeria rebased its GDP twice within a decade. The country increased its GDP estimate by 89% in 2014, becoming Africa's largest economy, before implementing another 34. 4% upward revision in 2025 by changing its base year from 2010 to 2019. GDP rebasing has produced similar statistical effects across the region. Togo's 2020 rebasing reduced the country's debt-to-GDP ratio for 2019 to 51. 9% from 68. 3% while lowering its fiscal deficit as a share of GDP. Benin increased its 2015 GDP estimate by 36. 4%, Niger revised its GDP upward by 33. 3%, and Senegal raised its estimate by 29. 6%. According to a WAEMU Commission study, GDP rebasing reduced fiscal deficit and debt ratios across member states while also lowering measured tax-to-GDP ratios. Statistical Revision Follows World Bank ReclassificationThe announcement comes only days after a major statistical milestone for Togo. On July 1, 2026, the World Bank reclassified Togo from a low-income country to a lower-middle-income economy, making it the only country worldwide to cross that threshold this year. The World Bank based the reclassification on a minimum gross national income (GNI) per capita threshold of $1,136. Data from the RGPH-5 census played a key role in that decision by reducing Togo's official population estimate by 11. 7%, thereby increasing measured income per capita. Meanwhile, INSEED estimates Togo's nominal GDP at more than CFA6,919 billion, while the economy is expected to grow 6. 3% in real terms. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also reclassified Togo as a country with strong debt-carrying capacity. Rebasing Does Not Solve Fiscal ChallengesA larger GDP improves several fiscal ratios, but it also reduces the measured tax-to-GDP ratio. Following the 2020 rebasing, Togo's tax-to-GDP ratio fell to 13. 6% in 2019 from 20. 8%, moving further below the WAEMU's 20% convergence target. Another rebasing is likely to lower that ratio again, even as Togo has committed under its IMF-supported program to strengthen domestic revenue mobilization. However, GDP rebasing does not change the country's debt repayment obligations. Although the exercise lowers the debt-to-GDP ratio statistically, it does not reduce the amount the government must repay. Togo has only recently begun reducing its debt burden through fiscal consolidation. The country's public debt declined to 65% of GDP by mid-2025 from 72% in 2024. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3. 2% of GDP in 2025, while the IMF lowered Togo's risk of debt distress from high to moderate. Togolese authorities say those improvements reflect genuine fiscal consolidation rather than a statistical change in the GDP base year. Fiacre E. Kakpo