If US-Iran peace talks collapse, Will India pay price? Will it hurt its economy, energy security?
Will India suffer if the US-Iran peace talks collapse? How could India face higher crude oil prices, energy security risks, rising import bills and geopolitical challenges? Explained here.
EXPLAINERWill India suffer if the US-Iran peace talks collapse? How could India face higher crude oil prices, energy security risks, rising import bills and geopolitical challenges? Explained here. US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland. Add DNA as a Preferred SourceTRENDING NOWGold, silver prices today, February 8, 2026: Check city-wise rates in Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata and moreBomb threat to 9 Delhi schools, Bomb squad deployedSourav Ganguly slams PCB's India boycott threat, asks 'backing out of a World Cup for what?'Who is Shivam Mishra? 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How may it affect the energy security and economy of India? How may it impact the geopolitical dynamics of Asia and the Middle East? Though the talks were held in a Swiss resort, tucked in the Alps, Indian policymakers and the foreign affairs mandarins kept an eye on them. US-Iran Peace Talks FailureAt the time of writing this article on Wednesday afternoon, Brent crude oil was selling for $76. 10 and the WTI for 72. 25 per barrel, lower than the price a day ago. The analysts believe that if the talks collapse, it will result in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz once again, which will put the crude prices on fire. The crude oil prices soared to $118 per barrel at their peak during the US-Iran war. A similar situation can not be ruled out. A blockade of the waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman may cut off about 20% of the world's crude and gas supply, creating major supply chain disruption and an energy crisis. The global supply inventories across the world are at the lowest level due to the conflict, increased prices, and the closure of the waterway. India, the country that imports about 85% of its fuel requirement, will be hit hard and may become one of the worst sufferers. About 55% of India's fuel import flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and a blockade of the waterway will not disrupt the supply chain; it will push the fuel bill further, which is already an increased one. The cost of shipping and insurance will increase immensely, further adding to the economic woes of India. A breakdown of the talks will push India further towards the US and its President Donald Trump, who is known for his vindictive politics and tit-for-tat policies. It will have to buy more crude oil from Washington after the waiver on buying Russian oil comes to an end. A collapse of talks will complicate the issue for India, which is already having payment problems and is undertaking the complex rupee-rial route. If the talks collapse, Iran will continue to remain under the US and EU sanctions. Earlier, the imposition of economic sanctions on Iran created problems for India as follows:Before the sanctions, Tehran was India's 2nd biggest supplier of crude oil, with the bilateral trade reaching to $17. 03 billion during 2018-19. The US sanctions forced India to reduce these imports to zero in 2019-2020. New Delhi was forced to increase its crude imports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Under the pressure to narrow the trade gap, India was forced to import more from the US. Washington became its second biggest source of crude last month. If the sanctions continue, New Delhi may be forced to move closer to the US and buy more oil, and that too at an increased price. India may have to pull out of its ongoing Chabahar Port project if the sanctions continue. It may prove to be a blow to India from a geopolitical perspective. 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