Hormuz Turns Oil Outlooks Into a Guessing Game | OilPrice. com
ByEditorial Dept- Jul 03, 2026, 1:51 PM CDTNumbers Report – July 03, 2026In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we will take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the. . .
ByEditorial Dept- Jul 03, 2026, 1:51 PM CDTNumbers Report – July 03, 2026In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we will take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy and metals sectors. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers. Let’s take a look. 1. Hormuz Turns Oil Outlooks Into a Guessing Game- Energy market research organizations have started to recalibrate their global supply outlooks for 2026 and 2027, with the US Energy Information Administration seeing a much slower return of production than the IEA or Bloomberg’s NEF. - In their June monthly updates, the IEA and BNEF narrowed their 2026 deficits to 900,000 b/d and 500,000 b/d, respectively – both predicted a 2 million b/d supply shortfall a month earlier. - The EIA, on the other hand, stated that it doesn’t expect a Hormuz recovery to pre-war levels before early 2027, expecting global oil inventories to fall by an average of 7. 6 million b/d in Q3 2026. - Whilst all market forecasters expect 2027 balances to be wildly skewed towards a supply glut, the discrepancies between short-term outlooks are staggering. - The monthly Reuters poll on oil price projections saw the 2026 Brent average fall back to $84. 5 per barrel this month, down $6 per barrel compared to May, suggesting the analytical community is reactive and has no real read on what the US or Iran will do next. 2. Hormuz Traffic Rises, But the Shipping…COMMUNITY MEMBERSHIP(FREE)GLOBAL ENERGY ALERT($697$279PER YEAR)Breaking energy stories before they hit the mainstream mediaTop quality analysis from industry veteransExclusive investment opportunitiesDigestible data breakdownsGeopolitical insights from our network of over 600 operativesRisk-free 30-day money back guarantee