Global Economy: Trade Holds Strong, But Gaps May Increase
Global trade has proved to be more resilient than is often suggested by the current political rhetoric. However, its routes, rules and rewards are changing, and the next phase may widen the gaps between countries, especially as AI investment and technological capacity remain concentrated in just a few places The future of global trade has […]
Global trade has proved to be more resilient than is often suggested by the current political rhetoric. However, its routes, rules and rewards are changing, and the next phase may widen the gaps between countries, especially as AI investment and technological capacity remain concentrated in just a few placesThe future of global trade has long been the subject of intense debate, with sharply contrasting views on how globalisation is changing, who benefits from it, and how its risks and rewards are distributed. These questions are today further complicated by tariffs, geopolitical tensions, regional blocs, AI and automation. At the 21st World Congress of the International Economic Association, held in Belgrade under the theme “Contrasting World Visions: Globalism v Nationalism, Multilateralism v Bilateralism, and Democracy v Autocracy”, we spoke with five leading economists: Ralph Ossa, Gene Grossman, Hélène Rey, Arnaud Costinot and Justin Yifu Lin. They discussed the state of global trade beyond the headlines: how resilient the rules-based system remains, whether the Trump administration’s tariff offensive marks a structural rupture or a politically amplified shock, how smaller economies can navigate a world shaped by the U. S. , China and regional blocs, and whether AI will widen the gap between countries that produce technology and those that mainly use it.