Global Economy Briefing — July 25, 2026
Daily BriefThe morning intel from across Latin America. Free. By subscribing you agree to ourprivacy policy. We never share your email. Rio Times Global Economy BriefingThe Big ThreeIMF trims 2026 global growth. . .
Daily BriefThe morning intel from across Latin America. Free. By subscribing you agree to ourprivacy policy. We never share your email. Rio Times Global Economy BriefingThe Big ThreeIMF trims 2026 global growth to 3. 0% as energy shock bitesThe IMF projects global growth of 3. 0% in 2026. Global inflation is forecast to rise to 4. 7% before easing in 2027. Fed holds but stays hawkish, keeping dollar and yields elevatedThe Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target range at 3. 50%–3. 75%. Markets debate whether stubborn inflation will force a rate hike later in 2026. Wall Street pauses as breadth improves, signalling rotation not routThe S&P 500 is up 10. 2% in the first half of 2026. A big Q2 rebound and small-cap outperformance signal improved risk appetite. S&P 5007,411. 98-6. 27% over the past monthPulls back from record as equal-weight index rises, signalling healthier breadth. Nasdaq Composite24,976Recent data not availableAI leaders drive a sharper tech correction even as Q2 still delivers gains above 20%. Dow Jones Industrial Average51,947Recent data not availableGives up intraday gains after an all-time closing high the previous session. DXY dollar indexnear top of recent range+2. 3% in June vs basketStronger dollar on Fed’s hawkish hold tightens global financial conditions. 10Y U. S. Treasuryaround 4. 0%–4. 25% rangelittle changed recentlyYields remain elevated as markets juggle firm growth with an inflation plateau. Brent crude$96. 78/bblvolatile near-termHigher energy prices are a key macro swing factor for import-dependent LatAm. Brazil Bovespalatest June levelQ2 rebound with broader EMBenefited from global value and small-cap rotation but remains hostage to Fed expectations. Headline CPI (monthly)-0. 4% m/m in Junevs +0. 3% priorOne-month relief driven by a gasoline plunge, but underlying pressures persist. The overnight global tape and what it means for Latin America. (Photo internet reproduction)One-stop referenceCompany IntelligenceEvery listed company in Latin America — financials, ownership and structure for 1,450+ companies across 26 exchanges, in one place. Browse the directory →United StatesEurope & United KingdomAsia-Pacific & Emerging MarketsLive Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board. Rio Times · Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live BoardWorldJul 25, 2026 · 04:05S&P 500 · benchmark——Market breadth · 7 names43%advancing3 ▲ advancing4 declining ▼Currencies, rates & key inputsGold4,071+0. 60%Brent crude96. 78-3. 88%Full instrument boardInstrumentLastChangeYoYPrev. HighLowVolumeGOLD4,071+0. 60%+22. 10%4,0474,0854,024112,402SILVER58. 91+1. 92%+54. 34%57. 8059. 2957. 3626,053BRENT96. 78-3. 88%+41. 41%100. 69101. 1695. 1429,916WTI89. 31-3. 12%+37. 06%92. 1992. 8387. 68336,373COPPER6. 36+0. 83%+10. 31%6. 306. 386. 3128,473IRON ORE161. 91—+64. 29%161. 91161. 911BTC63,953-0. 23%-45. 64%64,09864,12763,90923,919,458,304ETH1,857-0. 17%-50. 18%1,8601,8621,8547,967,162,368USD/BRL5. 08-0. 18%-8. 00%5. 085. 095. 05—Largest moves todayBRENT96. 78-3. 88%WTI89. 31-3. 12%SILVER58. 91+1. 92%COPPER6. 36+0. 83%GOLD4,071+0. 60%BTC63,953-0. 23%USD/BRL5. 08-0. 18%ETH1,857-0. 17%The session readThe S&P 500 was little changed on the session, with breadth negative —3 of 7names higher. SILVERled, whileBRENTlagged. Global economy — Source: EODHD close, 2026-07-24. 01Wall Street exhales, breadth broadensU. S. equities head into the weekend having cooled from record territory. The S&P 500 is up 10. 2% in the first half of 2026. The equal-weighted index and small caps outperformed. This signals a healthier, more inclusive rally beneath the headline index. The Nasdaq underperformed as investors questioned stretched AI valuations. The Dow, by contrast, eked out gains and notched an all-time closing high. That rotation matters for Brazil and its neighbours. Global investors are rediscovering industrials, financials and commodities. Beneath the equity surface, bond markets and the dollar are quietly enforcing discipline. The U. S. dollar strengthened 2. 3% against a basket of currencies in June. For LatAm FX this is a familiar squeeze. A firm dollar and high real U. S. yields narrow the room for local central banks to ease. 02Fed’s hawkish hold keeps dollar and curves on edgeThe Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged in June. It maintained the federal funds target range at 3. 50%–3. 75%. Officials lifted their 2026 inflation projection and nudged down growth expectations. They acknowledged the energy shock could yet require additional tightening. Markets are now debating whether the next move could be up. This shift helps explain why the dollar is firm and U. S. yields remain elevated. The macro backdrop the Fed is watching is mixed rather than weak. U. S. real GDP grew at an annualised 2. 1% in the first quarter. Business investment contributed more to growth than the consumer. The labour market continues to cool only gradually, with unemployment in the low-4% region. Inflation, however, has become more complicated. The Fed’s preferred PCE measure peaked around 3. 8% annualised. June’s surprise 0. 4% month-on-month drop in headline CPI was driven largely by gasoline. It was not broad-based relief. For Brazil and its neighbours, this is not a comfortable mix. A Fed that is on hold but leaning hawkish keeps global financial conditions tighter. IndicatorActualPriorVerdictQ1 2026 GDP (annualised)2. 1%prior ~3. 4% in Q4 2025Stronger than feared; business investment leads, complicating disinflation. Fed funds target range3. 50%–3. 75% (unchanged)3. 50%–3. 75%Hawkish hold; door remains open to a 2026 hike, anchoring yields and dollar. PCE inflation (Q2 peak)peaked around 3. 8% annualised4. 1% in 2025 (IMF)Re-acceleration versus disinflation trend keeps Fed reluctant to ease quickly. June CPI m/m-0. 4%+0. 3% m/m priorGasoline-led decline masks sticky core pressures; Fed likely stays cautious. Labour marketunemployment low-4% regionsub-4% in 2025Cooling gradually, supporting ‘no imminent recession’ narrative for now. S&P 500 H1 2026 YTD+10. 2%Q1 negative for majorsBig Q2 rebound and small-cap outperformance signal improved risk appetite. IndicatorActualPriorVerdictEuro area 2026 GDP forecast0. 9% (IMF)1. 2% for 2027Stagflation-like trade-off limits scope for aggressive ECB easing. ECB 2026 inflation projection3. 0% (staff)2. 6% priorHigher energy costs push up forecast, keeping euro rates relatively firm. UK Q1 2026 GDP+0. 6% q/q+0. 2% in Q4 2025Better start to year, but later data show momentum fading amid energy shock. UK CPI (May)2. 8% y/y; services 3. 7%2. 8% headline in AprilHeadline near target but sticky services and transport highlight domestic pressures. BoE Bank Rate3. 75% (7-2 vote to hold)3. 75%Hawkish: two members voted to hike to 4. 00%, pushing back cut expectations. IndicatorActualPriorVerdictGlobal growth 2026 (IMF)3. 0%3. 5% average 2024-25Downgrade reflects energy shock and geopolitical drag; risks tilted to downside. Global inflation 2026 (IMF)4. 7%4. 1% in 2025Higher energy and food prices reverse part of the earlier disinflation trend. Brent crude (IMF base case)US$87/bbl end-2026US$74/bbl projected end-2027Persistently high oil is a tax on importers, a benefit for LatAm commodity exporters. Japan 2026 GDP (IMF)0. 6%slightly higher 2025 growthWeak momentum and rising inflation keep BoJ on slow normalisation path. MSCI EAFE H1 2026+9. 4% through Juneflat in Q1 (approx)Non-U. S. markets participate in rally but take cues from U. S. rates and dollar. InstrumentLevelSessionS&P 500 (US)7,412+0. 05%Ibovespa (Brazil)174,042-1. 52%USD/BRL5. 0873+0. 06%LatAm Markets: Live Signals →— real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America. Daily BriefThe morning intel from across Latin America. Free. By subscribing you agree to ourprivacy policy. We never share your email.