Fertilizer Overtakes Cocoa as Nigeria’s Top Non-oil Export Earner
Fertilizer has reportedly overtaken cocoa as Nigeria’s leading non-oil export earner in 2026 Global supply disruptions and rising prices have increased demand for Nigerian fertilizer Large production surpluses allow Nigeria to expand exports without constraining domestic supply Preliminary data indicate that fertilizer has overtaken cocoa as Nigeria’s largest source of. . .
Fertilizer has reportedly overtaken cocoa as Nigeria’s leading non-oil export earner in 2026Global supply disruptions and rising prices have increased demand for Nigerian fertilizerLarge production surpluses allow Nigeria to expand exports without constraining domestic supplyPreliminary data indicate that fertilizer has overtaken cocoa as Nigeria’s largest source of non-oil export earnings so far in 2026, Abubakar Sadiq Kassim, president of the Fertilizer Producers and Suppliers Association of Nigeria (FEPSAN), told local newspaper Daily Trust on Tuesday, July 14. “The numbers have not yet come back, but the figures already in the system, which the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) can confirm, show that fertilizer has become the country’s largest non-oil export earner. I believe this will continue for a long time,” he said. If the final data bear this out, fertilizer will have displaced agricultural commodities at the top of Nigeria’s non-oil export rankings. Cocoa dominated the segment in 2025, generating $1. 99 billion in export revenue, compared with $1. 29 billion for urea, Nigeria’s main fertilizer export, according to the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC). Global Disruptions Open an Export WindowKassim attributed fertilizer’s rise largely to global market conditions. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East involving the United States, Iran and Israel since February 2026 have disrupted global energy and fertilizer supply chains. The disruptions have opened new markets for Nigerian producers. “We have even received inquiries from countries as far as Brazil asking whether we can supply NPK fertilizers. So the potential is there,” Kassim said. Fertilizer prices have also surged in global markets. In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report, published on April 28, the World Bank warned that prices could rise by more than 30% in 2026 because of the Middle East conflict and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly one third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the strait, representing about 16 million metric tons a year. Urea, the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertilizer and Nigeria’s main fertilizer export, is particularly exposed to those disruptions. The World Bank expects its price to average $675 per metric ton this year, nearly 60% higher than in 2025. Surplus Capacity Supports ExportsFertilizer’s rise to the top of Nigeria’s non-oil exports also rests on expanded industrial capacity and a large exportable surplus. Nigeria can produce about 7 million metric tons of urea a year, while domestic consumption ranges from 750,000 to one million metric tons, according to FEPSAN. Even if consumption doubled to two million metric tons, producers would still have substantial volumes available for export. Three companies account for most of this capacity: Dangote Fertilizer, based in Lagos State; Indorama Eleme Petrochemicals Limited (IEPL), the local subsidiary of Singapore-based Indorama Global Corporation; and Notore Chemical Industries. Indorama and Notore both operate in Rivers State. Nigeria also has installed capacity to blend more than 10 million metric tons of compound NPK fertilizer annually, compared with estimated domestic consumption of only 1. 5 million metric tons. Within the non-oil segment, fertilizer could reduce the longstanding dominance of agricultural commodities such as cocoa. Although oil continues to dominate Nigeria’s overall exports, the fertilizer industry offers the country a way to turn its natural gas resources into higher-value exports and foreign-exchange earnings. Stéphanas Assocle