Congo’s Economy Seen Growing 5. 2% in 2026 on Hydrocarbon Surge
Congo’s economic growth is forecast to rise to 5. 2% in 2026, driven by higher hydrocarbon exports Congo LNG’s expanded capacity is expected to boost gas production by 128% and increase government revenue Growth could slow to 3. 5% in 2027 as hydrocarbon production normalizes and energy prices decline The Republic of. . .
Congo’s economic growth is forecast to rise to 5. 2% in 2026, driven by higher hydrocarbon exportsCongo LNG’s expanded capacity is expected to boost gas production by 128% and increase government revenueGrowth could slow to 3. 5% in 2027 as hydrocarbon production normalizes and energy prices declineThe Republic of Congo’s economy is expected to grow by 5. 2% in 2026, up from an estimated 2. 5% in 2025, driven by a sharp increase in hydrocarbon exports, Fitch Solutions said in a report published Wednesday, July 29. The forecast reflects an expected 27. 2% rise in overall hydrocarbon production following the completion of Phase II of Congo LNG. The liquefied natural gas production and export complex is designed to monetize the vast gas reserves of the offshore Marine XII field. Phase II began operations in February, bringing Congo LNG’s total liquefaction capacity to about 3 million metric tons per year, equivalent to 4. 5 billion cubic meters of gas, according to Italian energy group Eni, the project’s main operator. Phase I has an annual capacity of 600,000 tons. The additional capacity is expected to drive a 128% increase in natural gas production in 2026. Oil output is forecast to rise by a more modest 8. 8%. Imports are expected to decline as the completion of Phase II reduces demand for capital goods and engineering equipment used during construction. Higher oil prices and increased hydrocarbon production will also boost government revenue and public spending. Congolese authorities revised the 2026 budget in July, raising planned expenditure by 10. 4% from the original budget and by 16. 5% compared with the revised 2025 budget. The government plans to increase spending on goods and services and current transfers while keeping the public-sector wage bill under control. Growth Seen Slowing to 3. 5% in 2027Household consumption is expected to remain resilient in 2026 despite a temporary rise in inflation. Consumer prices rose 4. 5% year on year in May, up from 0. 6% in March, mainly because of higher food and transportation costs. Headline inflation is forecast to average 3. 5% in 2026, up from 2. 7% in 2025. However, partial subsidies funded by higher government oil revenue could help contain inflationary pressures and cushion households from the loss of purchasing power. Lower bank reserve requirements and continued liquidity injections by the Bank of Central African States, or BEAC, are also expected to support credit growth. Increased public transfers will provide an additional boost to disposable income. As a result, household consumption growth is forecast to rise to 2. 7% in 2026 from an estimated 2. 5% in 2025. Fitch Solutions said Congo’s economic growth could exceed its initial forecast if a prolonged or intensified conflict between the United States and Iran pushed global oil prices higher. That would increase export earnings, foreign-currency inflows and government revenue. Higher oil prices would also give authorities more fiscal room to increase public spending and continue shielding households from rising energy costs, supporting both public and private consumption. Fitch Solutions expects Congo’s economic growth to slow to 3. 5% in 2027 as hydrocarbon production growth normalizes and global energy prices decline. However, easing inflation and looser monetary policy from the BEAC are expected to continue supporting household consumption. Walid Kéfi